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Investment Philosophy and Economic Outlook for 2015

Our investment philosophy is to take mostly idiosyncratic risk by focussing on equity stories which are driven mainly by factors very specific to a company or a sector. With economic activity weakening quite early in the year, we did realise we would have to focus on. There is no reason for us to change our overall investment strategy for 2015, as macroeconomic...

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Facing the Spectre of Economic Stagnation

The Bank of England was pretty dovish this week as Mark Carney presented their quarterly inflation forecast. They reduced their GDP forecasts for 2015 and 2016 and now believe that inflation is likely to fall below 1% within 6 months. The outlook is "weaker due to Europe" which may well be facing the "spectre of economic stagnation" according to Mr Carney. The Bank's forecasts were...

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The FED’S Credibility and the Efficacy of QE

It would appear that, as soon as there is a little trouble in equity markets, one of the more influential FOMC members does a 180 degree U-turn. He then blames everything that is going wrong on Europe. And finally, he suggests the FED should continue a policy that has been remarkably successful in generating asset price inflation whilst failing to ignite a sustainable economic recovery...

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Stagnation for the Euro Zone

There is no pick-up in activity to save what were again misplaced expectations of stronger economic activity. In this respect, 2014 is very similar to 2013 or 2012. The year starts with forecast growth rates for corporate earnings approaching mid teens, though current macroeconomic situation and leading indicators do not allow to entertain such hopes. At mid point into the year...

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It Might Not Be All That Bad

The realisation that the Euro zone economy had come to a standstill and was on the cusp of deflation*, combined with an underwhelming reporting season and the end of QE in the US looming on the horizon**, was behind this summer's correction. However, since 2009 each time things have started to look bad, investors have put their faith in central bankers to bail them out. So, two weeks...

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ECB Surprise Package: Desperation or Inspiration

Mario Draghi and the ECB dominated proceedings this week as they often do. Just before we discuss their rate cuts and stimulus package, a word about the Bank of Japan meeting which occurred earlier in the week. The Bank of Japan made no change to policy, a decision that we found disappointing. There is little doubt that the sales tax inspired economic reversal seen in Q2 was worse...

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European Economic Weakness Forces a Re-Think

What really piqued our interest this past week was the poor economic data out of Europe (and Japan for that matter). It has been nearly 6 years since the collapse of Lehmans, two years since Europe was saved by Draghi’s magical phrase “I’ll do whatever it takes...and believe me, it will be enough”. Throughout this time, major central banks have kept benchmark interest rates...

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An Increasingly Divided FOMC is Falling Behind the Curve

There are a growing number of regional Fed Presidents who are increasingly nervous about the Fed’s ultra-easy monetary policy. The end of QE is inevitable in the next few months, and regional Fed Governors are openly talking of the need for rate rises early next year. They believe that the economy has healed enough, their key targets on unemployment and inflation are very close to being...

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China: Slow Economic Growth and Shadow Banking

The data that really caught our eye this week was the China GDP numbers. Many headlines focused on how markets rallied on better than expected GDP, which on one level may be correct as real GDP was 7.4% higher in Q1 ’14 compared to Q1 ’13. However, measured on SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) the Chinese economy only grew in real terms by 5.7%! This is way...

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Addressing the Tax Challenges of the Digital Economy

Dear Sirs. We write in response to the request for comments on the Public Discussion Draft on BEPS Action 1: Address The Tax Challenges Of The Digital Economy 24 March 2014. We are pleased to offer our comments as follows. In respect of the specific issues on which you have requested comments. Whether it is possible to ring-fence the digital economy from the rest of the economy, and if not...

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About Us

Shorex is a specialist media group for the wealth management industry and the high-end luxury market. Our purpose is to provide our partners, delegates and visitors with an effective networking platform where they can forge productive relationships and come away with strong ideas... read more

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